Demand for raw materials will remain expanding over the next decades, driven by population and income growth, especially in developing countries. An improved income distribution joined with a strong urbanization process, not only increases demand but also reconfigures it. Consumers begin to diversify their diets, incorporating a greater consumption of meats and dairy, and other greater processed products.
Bigger demand for agricultural products for food and feed, but also for energy and other industrial uses, will put pressure on increasingly scarce natural resources, affected by factors such as soil degradation, salinization of irrigated areas and climate change.
Given the constraints to incorporate new lands into the production process, increasing yields per hectare will gain greater importance as a source of production growth. In this way, the development, diffusion and full utilization of the technologies involved becomes imperative.
Even though the growth of world supply expected for the next years will complement the increase in demand, it will become increasingly difficult for most countries to achieve food self-sufficiency, due to unfavorable agro-ecological conditions, scarcity of natural resources, lack of infrastructure and investment, and public policies that distort international markets, among others.
Although significant increases are expected in several countries, production tends to be concentrated in a small number of countries. Imports will be diversified into a greater number of destinations, leaded by developing countries. Whereas Asia will remain the most dynamic importing region, Africa will increase its share in grain, meat and dairy imports.
While acknowledging the growing role of world trade in granting food security by linking non-self-sufficiency regions with those rich in renewable natural resources and surplus production, agricultural products will remain facing the biggest trade barriers.
In addition to traditional obstacles, new non-tariff measures to trade, both public and private, had emerged, affecting not only the expansion of food markets and new bio-based products, but also placing limits on technological development and demand changes in production processes along the entire value chain.
For this reason, the reform of the rules affecting agricultural trade becomes a priority if we want it to realize its full potential, contributing to World Food Security in all its dimensions (availability, access, use and stability).
To be successful it must take into account the concerns expressed by both exporting and net food importers, adapting to the new scenario, with a focus on meeting the objectives of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.
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